2022 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, starting grid: Computer reveals surprising IndyCar picks, best bets
American Josef Newgarden is the only driver to win two IndyCar races this season, but is entering the 2022 Indianapolis 500 ranked fourth in the overall driver standings. Last year he finished 12th at the Indianapolis 500 and in 2020 he took fifth at the Brickyard. He returns this year in search of his first victory at the iconic race, but comes up against a historically formidable group of top drivers.
Newgarden is a 10-1 pick in the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook. He faces a 2022 Indianapolis 500 field that includes Scott Dixon (4-1), who set the record for fastest four-lap qualifying speed this week, as well as 2018 champion Will Power (18-1) and four-timer winner. Helio Castroneves (25-1). Before running through the 2022 Indy 500 starting grid and making predictions for the 2022 Indianapolis 500, be sure to check out the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven throw model.
Developed by Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this exclusive auto race prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 NASCAR season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a solid 3-1 win. Then he called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix for win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.
In total, he has won five of Larson’s wins in a historic season and also went 15-9 on his head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, he was important for Ross Chastain to win in Austin, which gave him a much better chance of winning than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before winning as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington. Anyone who followed his lead on these games saw huge returns.
Now the model has simulated the 2022 Indianapolis 500 (view tickets on StubHub) 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the full projected 2022 Indy 500 standings.
Best Indy 500 2022 Predictions
A surprise: The model is high on Tony Kanaan, even though he is a long shot of 18-1 in the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds. Kanaan is among the most speculative top bets, as he has yet to participated in an IndyCar race this season. Last year he raced in just four events and finished 10th in the Indianapolis 500 after starting fifth.
Kanaan won the race in 2013, and while it’s a distant memory at this point, it’s worth mentioning. In pre-race practice, Kanaan notably stood out and recorded an average speed of 233.022 in Top 12 qualifying on Sunday. Even though Kanaan has drastically reduced his race attendance, he has remained competitive and would love to add another Indy 500 win in the twilight of his career. Kanaan has a much better chance of winning than his long 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
And a huge shocker: Pato O’Ward, one of the Vegas favorites at 17-2, stumbles big and fails to crack the top five. There are much better values on the 2022 Indy 500 starting grid. The 23-year-old Mexican driver made his IndyCar debut in 2018 and he made three trips to Victory Lane early in his IndyCar career and has recorded top-six finishes at the last two Indy 500s.
However, he’s still inexperienced with just 43 career IndyCar starts under his belt and he’ll have to hope the Hondas don’t team up and pull out early. Four of the six riders ahead of him on the 2022 Indianapolis 500 starting grid are at Honda and they will likely work together early. O’Ward is currently seventh in the 2022 IndyCar standings.
How to Make Picks for the Indianapolis 500 in 2022
The model is also targeting four other drivers with a 2022 Indy 500 rating of 18-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s projected Indy 500 standings on SportsLine..
So who wins the 2022 Indy 500? And what long shots make a race at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full predicted 2022 Indianapolis 500 standings, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.
2022 Indianapolis 500 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Scott Dixon 4-1
Alex Palou 9-2
Pato O’Ward 17-2
Joseph Newgarden 10-1
Rinus Vee Kay 12-1
Marcus Ericsson 14-1
Takuma Sato 14-1
Jimmy Johnson 16-1
Colton Herta 18-1
Tony Kanan 18-1
Ed Carpenter 22-1
Scott McLaughlin 22-1
Simon Pagenaud 25-1
Romain Grosjean 25-1
Helio Castroneves 25-1
Felix Rosenqvist 25-1
Alexandre Rossi 30-1
Graham Rahal 50-1
David Malukas 50-1
Conor Daly 50-1
Marco Andretti 60-1
JR Hildebrand 75-1
Juan-Pablo Montoya 100-1
Sage Karam 100-1
Jack Harvey 125-1
Santino Ferruci 125-1
Kyle Kirkwood 150-1
Callum Illot 150-1
Christian Lundgaard 200-1
Devlin De Francesco 250-1
Stefan Wilson 500-1
Dalton Kellet 500-1
Indianapolis 500 starting grid
Row 1 – Scott Dixon, Alex Palou, Rinus VeeKay
Row 2 – Ed Carpenter, Marcus Ericsson, Tony Kanaan
Row 3 – Pato O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist, Romain Grosjean
Row 4 – Takuma Sato, Will Power, Jimmie Johnson
Row 5 – David Malukas, Josef Newgarden, Santino Ferruci
Row 6 – Simon Pagenaud, JR Hildebrand, Conor Daly
Row 7 – Callum Ilott, Alexander Rossi, Graham Rahal
Row 8 – Sage Karam, Marco Andretti, Devlin DeFrancesco
Row 9 – Colton Herta, Scott McLaughlin, Helio Castroneves
Row 10 – Kyle Kirkwood, Dalton Kellett, Juan Pablo Montoya
Row 11 – Christian Lundgaard, Jack Harvey, Stefan Wilson