2022 NASCAR playoffs at Talladega odds, predictions, picks: Model fades Brad Keselowski at YellaWood 500

Talladega Superspeedway is always one of the most exciting venues on the NASCAR calendar and the intensity is always heightened when the 2.66-mile tri-oval hosts a post-season event. The 2022 NASCAR playoffs continue on Sunday with the 2022 YellaWood 500 at Talladega and there are just two races left before the field of championship-eligible drivers drops from 12 to eight. Ross Chastain won the spring race at Talladega and is currently second in the 2022 NASCAR standings behind Joey Logano, who will have a 12-point cushion when the green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET.

Logano is a 12-1 co-favorite in Caesars Sportsbook’s 2022 YellaWood 500 odds along with Bubba Wallace and Ryan Blaney while Chastain is listed at 15-1. Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is listed at 14-1 in the latest NASCAR odds at Talladega while Hendrick Motorsports teammate and 2020 NASCAR champion Chase Elliott is 13-1. Before you run through the 2022 YellaWood 500 starting lineup and make NASCAR Talladega 2022 predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR Texas picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a solid 3-1 win. Then he called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix for winning the 2021 NASCAR Cup championship. In total, he had five of Larson’s wins in a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was important for Ross Chastain to win in Austin, which gave him a much better chance of winning than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before winning as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and again on Logano when he came back 14-1 in their win at St. Louis. In early August it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than its 17-1 odds implied and Harvick took the win at Michigan, then last week it was high on Tyler Reddick before winning at Texas for a payment of 12-1. Anyone who followed his lead on these games saw huge returns.

Now the model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR race at Talladega 10,000 times. Head over to SportsLine to see the full projected standings for the 2022 YellaWood 500.

Best NASCAR 2022 Predictions at Talladega

For the 2022 YellaWood 500, the model is high on Austin Dillon, even though he is a whopping 28-1 in the final 2022 NASCAR at Talladega. He is a target for anyone looking for a huge salary. The 32-year-old is a four-time NASCAR Cup Series winner and two of those wins have come on superspeedways, including a win at the 2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 last month to sneak into the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs in the final race of the regular season.

Dillon has 65 career top-10 finishes on NASCAR’s top circuit and 14 of those have come at Daytona and Talladega. He has a distinct penchant for superspeedway racing and even though he was knocked out of the 2022 NASCAR playoffs, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him race near the front at the 2022 YellaWood 500. Find out which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a surprise: Brad Keselowski, who is tied for the seventh-lowest odds at 15-1, stumbles big and barely makes the top 15. There are much better values ​​in the YellaWood 500 starting lineup 2022. It’s been a mixed bag for Keselowski at Talladega in recent years.

He finished first and second in the spring and fall races, respectively, in 2021 at this track. But he hasn’t even finished in the top 12 in any other start here since 2017. He’s well outside the playoff field and hasn’t finished in the top five all season in any points race, so the model doesn’t like its value at 15-1 in this one. Check out other favorites to avoid here.

How to Make NASCAR Talladega 2022 Picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR 2022 at Talladega odds of 17-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks on SportsLine.

So who wins the YellaWood 500 2022? And which longshots make a checkered flag race? Check out the latest NASCAR odds at Talladega below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected NASCAR Talladega 2022 standings, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 YellaWood 500 Odds, Terrain

See all NASCAR Talladega picks, best bets and predictions here

Bubba Wallace 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Joey Logan 12-1
Denny Hamlin 13-1
Chase Elliot 13-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
William Byron 15-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Ross Chestnut 15-1
Kyle Busch 16-1
Tyler Red Dick 17-1
Austin Cindric 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-1
Daniel Suarez 22-1
Christopher Bell 22-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Chris Buescher 25-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Ricky Stenhouse 28-1
Briscoe Hunt 28-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Michael McDowell 30-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Harrison Burton 75-1
Cole Custer 75-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Todd Gilliland 100-1
Corey Lajoie 100-1
Ty Dillon 125-1
JJ Yeley 500-1
Landon Cassill 500-1
Cody Ware 750-1
BJ McLeod 750-1

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