Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Same Game Bet Picks
The NFL’s Divisional Playoff Round ends with arguably the best game of all weekend, as the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of the AFC Championship Game of last season. The Bills and Chiefs both decimated their wild card opponents in humiliating fashion last week, so they carry a ton of momentum into this matchup with each offense lighting it up.
With so much at stake, one way to make this match even more exciting is to bet on an even game bet. New York has just legalized online sports betting, so if you want to get in on the action, we’ve compiled some of the best promotions to help you navigate those first bets.
There is potentially a bigger payout here than if each leg were wagered individually as single bets, but of course each leg must be correct for the bet to cash out. We have analyzed the numbers and put together an attractive three leg option which is available at odds of +3745:
- Less than 54.5 points (-110)
- Dawson Knox will score a touchdown (+180)
- Gabriel Davis will score a touchdown (+230)
- Betting odds: +3745
One strategy for same game betting is to incorporate legs that look slightly contradictory on paper in order to win a much higher payout if they all hit. That’s what we’re aiming for here, because under bets don’t quite equal two touchdown scorers. But if you consider that we could technically see seven combined TDs and PATs scored and still hit the underside, we think it’s worth taking that kind of approach for a chance at a big payday. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Less than 54.5 points (-110)
We’ll start by pointing out that these teams have scored 62 and 58 points in their last two meetings against each other. So why do we opt for under bets, especially since both teams scored over 40 points last week? Simply put, the Bills and Chiefs have improved significantly on defense since those previous meetings and we don’t think the market has fully adjusted.
The Bills have the best pass defense in football, allowing opposing quarterbacks just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. If Patrick Mahomes wants to play a good game, he will have to earn it.
As for the Chiefs’ defense, this unit was a mess at the start of the season but has improved by leaps and bounds over time. They’ve held five of their last six opponents at Arrowhead to 10 points or less. This team is no longer giving up points easily, and we don’t expect either offense to be as dominant as the market would have you believe.
Dawson Knox will score a touchdown (+180)
Next we have Dawson Knox to find the end zone. The associated odds of +180 are fantastic so a single bet is also advisable given what he has done this year. The tight end has scored six touchdowns in his last eight games, including two against the Patriots last week. He also enjoys playing against the Chiefs. When those teams met earlier this season, Knox had 117 yards and one touchdown. And in last year’s AFC Championship match, he also found the end zone.
Knox also had the Bills’ second-most targets in the red zone, as well as the 10th-most in the entire NFL. Josh Allen loves to look for Knox when there’s a chance to score late in practice, as highlighted by his eight-for-14 touchdowns in the red zone. We think he is a great addition to this same game bet.
Gabriel Davis will score a touchdown (+230)
Rounding out this same-game bet, we have Gabriel Davis who also finds the end zone. Davis has benefited from a high volume of targets from Allen in recent weeks, and he even had the ball thrown 14 times (!) against the Jets two weeks ago. It’s turned into a touchdown in four of his last six games. With Stefon Diggs likely to get a lot of attention from the Chiefs defense, Davis could sneak under the radar and into the end zone. Considering the game bumps that same game up to 37/1 (+3745), we’re happy to take the chance.
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