NASCAR 2022 at Darlington picks, odds, playoff predictions: Pattern fades Chase Elliott at Cook Out Southern 500

The NASCAR playoffs begin Sunday with the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, kicking off a 10-week run that ends in Phoenix in November. Kyle Larson is the 11-2 favorite in the latest 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. He has three top-5 finishes in his last four races at Darlington, but will face other 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 contenders such as Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin, who are both listed at 13-2 . Martin Truex Jr. (7-1), Kyle Busch (8-1) and Tyler Reddick (17-2) round out the group of drivers rated inside at 10-1.

Elliott has struggled at Darlington in recent years, notching just three top-10 finishes in his last seven tries. Should you lose Elliott with your 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 picks? Before you run through the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 starting lineup and make 2022 NASCAR Darlington predictions, be sure to see NASCAR’s latest picks at Darlington from SportsLine’s proven projection template.

Developed by Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a solid 3-1 victory. Then he called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix for winning the 2021 NASCAR Cup championship. In total, he had five of Larson’s wins in a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was important for Ross Chastain to win in Austin, which gave him a much better chance of winning than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before winning as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and again on Logano when he came back 14-1 in their win at St. Louis. In early August, he was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied, and Harvick took the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed his lead on these games saw huge returns.

Now the model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR race at Darlington 10,000 times. Head over to SportsLine to see the full projected 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 standings.

Best NASCAR 2022 Predictions at Darlington

For the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500, the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he is a 10-1 longshot in the final 2022 NASCAR at Darlington. He joined the Trackhouse Racing team full-time for the 2022 season, which turned out to be a successful move for him. Chastain earned the organization’s first win at Circuit of The Americas and followed it up with a win at Talladega a month later.

He’s come close to adding a third win several times since then, finishing second at Atlanta Motor Speedway and fourth at Road America. Chastain has finished outside the top 15 in six consecutive races, which extended his chances for Sunday’s race. He has a much better chance of winning it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Find out which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a huge shocker: Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles and fails to crack the top five. Although Elliott has three top-five finishes in NASCAR Darlington, he has just as many finishes outside of the top 30 at Lady in Black. His average result of 17.4 in 11 starts at this track ranks him only 16th among active drivers.

Elliott struggled in the first run of the playoffs and finished 20th or worse in three of the last four playoff openers. That includes a 20th-place finish the year he won the Cup Series championship (2020), then an accident saw him finish 31st the following year. Both of those races were also at Darlington, so there’s much better value in the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 starting lineup. Check out other favorites to avoid here.

How to Make NASCAR Darlington 2022 Picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2022 NASCAR odds at Darlington of 10-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks on SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500? And what long shots make a race at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR odds at Darlington below, then visit SportsLine now to see Darlington’s full 2022 NASCAR standings projection, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 Cook Out Southern 500 Odds, Pitch

See all NASCAR Darlington picks, best bets and predictions here

Kyle Larson 11-2
Chase Elliott 13-2
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Martin Truex Jr 7-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Tyler Red Dick 17-2
Ross Chestnut 10-1
Joey Logan 10-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
William Byron 15-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Alex Bowman 24-1
Daniel Suarez 35-1
Ty Gibbs 40-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
Erik Jones 70-1
Bubba Wallace 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Aric Almirola 80-1
Brad Keselowski 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse 125-1
Michael McDowell 150-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Daniel Hemric 750-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Landon Cassill 2500-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1

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