Sunday sweats: five bets to add to your NFL Week 6 card


Steve marcus

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) is sacked by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Yannick Ngakoue (91) during an NFL football game at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, October 10, 2021.

For the second consecutive week but also the last time of the season, a 14 hour marathon of NFL games awaits you.

The league’s decision to schedule London’s pair of matches this year at home time abroad has been a popular move for those hungry for betting all day. The Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars will have the main city sports screen on their own at 6:30 a.m. PT when they kick off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

For those who want a bet who don’t see one on the side, let’s go with a bonus prop to start this week. Sunday sweats. I will take Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will exceed 4.5 receptions at Even money at BetMGM.

The rookie has a great relationship with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and coach Brian Flores has made no secret of his desire to build offense around the Alabama pair of products. I’ll have another prop bet in Tomorrow’s Raiders preview story that will be followed here as well as one below under the usual five categories.

Hopefully the trio of pieces can help topple one section that has been an anchor for results while the rest of the column excels.

Read below for this week’s bets in five different categories as part of the Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of college and pro football pick’ems, including a weekly prop on the Raiders game on Sunday, will be tracked (and tied if possible) here.

Tasty Total (3-2, $ 68.77): Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns under 48.5 (South Point)

click to zoom in the picture

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) escapes the line of scrimmage during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cleveland this Sunday, Jan.3, 2021, file photo. Garrett was selected on Friday, January 8, 2021 to the Associated Press All-Pro squad.

That total has gone down, but it may not have gone down enough. If the weather forecast remains unchanged, it will shed more. Meteorologists have called for winds of up to 30 miles per hour off Lake Eerie at FirstEnergy Stadium all week, a reliable and annual deterrent to the Cleveland infringement. These two teams have been even better defensively than offensively anyway. Some of the larger sums of money may be waiting to be received for weather confirmation, but unless you’re playing limits, there’s no time to wait. Now is the time to act and take a small risk for potentially significant value.

Two-Team Teaser (6-0, $ 499.98): Kansas City Chiefs -0.5 and Carolina Panthers +8.5 to -120 (William Hill)

Speaking of lines that could move, the Chiefs are expected to close as at least 7-point favorites in Washington. Late steam arrived in Kansas City the last time it faced an outclassed opponent, Philadelphia, and a repeat is likely. Much of the Chiefs’ concern is overblown and stems from a rough schedule to start the season. I’m not sure where the odds will go in Minnesota versus Carolina, as I never thought the road team would come around to be so favored at the start. But, now that they did, I’m happy to enjoy it with a teaser that goes through both 3 and 7. The Panthers may not be able to beat the Vikings straight away, but they should not lose more than one touchdown.

Moneyline Parlay (2-3, $ 300): Baltimore Ravens & Chicago Bears +425 (Circa Sports)

Do I expect Chicago to upset Green Bay? No. Do I think it has more than a 33% chance? Absoutely. That’s why Bears +210 to win straight – only +208 at Circa – are some of my favorite games on the board. I reached this category in two consecutive weeks by pairing a favorite and an underdog where I show value, so the formula will stay. The hype about the Chargers has gone too far, as they are expected to be a bigger underdog on the road to what has been one of the best teams in the NFL for the past three seasons. Baltimore -140 is a significant value. I expect the Ravens to win and I hope the Bears get a big paycheck.

Player Prop (3-7, – $ 430.46): Justin Fields on 16.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)

This bet correlates to the latter, because if the Bears hope to beat the Packers, they should rely more on the running ability of their rookie quarterback. And why wouldn’t they do it? Green Bay is 29 years olde in the NFL in peak defense by Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. It’s worse than each of the teams Fields faced in their first two starts, the Lions and Raiders, where the Bears have mostly led throughout. That meant offensive coordinator Bill Lazor could keep things vanilla and not open up the whole playbook. I doubt he’ll follow the same pattern here in an important division game. Chicago should have a big advantage in Fields’ legs, and it would be foolish not to use them.

Non-Football Game (2-3, – $ 109.09): William Byron Same Money vs. Brad Keselowski in Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

If it’s a track that uses the 550 horsepower package, like Texas Motor Speedway will for this weekend’s playoff race, then I find a way to support young driver Hendrick Motorsports. I have done it several times in this space, and nothing prevents me from doing it again. This line makes no sense. Keselowski is still in the playoffs while Bryon is out, which may be why he is the favorite in this game. But the non-qualifying drivers didn’t really start to give in to those in the running until the last lap of four. This is the first race of an 8 driver round, and Byron should still be hungry to win. He has been one of the best drivers in this package all year with results surpassing those of Keselowski, who is about to leave the Penske team and has been performing below average for months now. Keselowski barely slipped into the bottom eight as the last rider to advance, and that’s not reason enough for him to be favored against a 550-horsepower specialist.

Sunday sweats since the beginning of the year: $ 16-15, $ 329.20

All-Time Weekend Betting Column: 191-176, $ 5,278.37

Previous bets pending: Texas on 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys win NFC East +150; Georgia 10-1 to win college football qualifiers; Baltimore Ravens 20-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12 against 1 to win the Masters 2022; Texas 50-1 to win NCAA 2022 tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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